Bihar Verdict 2025: Why the NDA Clean Sweeped and Mahagathbandhan Lost the Narrative

The recently concluded Bihar Assembly Election delivered a resounding mandate by not just electing a government but also providing a sharp, critical ground commentary on the fragile state of the opposition. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), with Nitish Kumar as the CM face, sailed past the majority mark comfortably. If one said that NDA would secure 200+ seats a few months back, people would've laughed at you. An election which was being celebrated as Mahagathbandhan (MGB) comeback even before elections, the results were a crushing setback, prompting deep introspection on its leadership, messaging, and the overall strategy.

The RJD’s New Reality

One of the most telling outcomes of the election was the dramatic reduction in the Rashtriya Janata Dal's (RJD) seat tally. The RJD has been dethroned as the single largest party in the state assembly for the first time since the 2010 assembly elections. The party, which formed the bedrock of the MGB, found its influence sharply diminished, having a landslide slip to the third spot behind both the BJP and the JD(U). In the 2020 election, the RJD emerged as the single-largest party with 75 seats, yet this time, its numbers plummeted, signaling a significant loss of ground and a major crisis for the party leadership. The promise for government job for each family did not resonate with the voters as much as the direct cash benefit by the NDA.

The Shadow of 'Jungle Raj'

Despite a dynamic, youthful campaign centered on the promise of government jobs and change, Tejashwi Yadav, the MGB's Chief Ministerial face, ultimately failed to fully distance himself from the narrative of "jungle raj". The NDA, spearheaded by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, consistently invoked the alleged lawlessness and administrative collapse of the RJD’s past rule in the 1990s and set the narrative that voting for RJD is giving free reign to the infamous"jungle raj" again. Though Tejashwi attempted to rebrand the party and run a forward-looking campaign, the 'jungle raj' tag proved to be a sticky narrative, particularly among older voters and the non-Yadav Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs). The fear of a return to the past, stoked relentlessly by the opposition, successfully chipped away at the youth leader's momentum, demonstrating the enduring power of historical baggage in Bihar politics.

The Contrast in High-Profile Campaigning

The election was also a study in contrasting campaign intensities, particularly concerning the national leaderships. The BJP deployed its heavyweight machinery, with key Union Ministers and the Prime Minister himself holding numerous, large-scale rallies to consolidate support and sway undecided voters. The strategic, sustained presence of the top BJP leadership was instrumental in turning the tide in their favour.

In sharp contrast, the campaign of the Congress-RJD’s principal ally came across as disjointed. MGB ally were contesting amongst each other in same seats whereas the seat distribution of NDA was more strategic and coherent. The leader of opposition, Rahul Gandhi, was reported to be abroad for a considerable amount of time during the critical two-month campaign window. While he did eventually lead a campaign across the state, the intermittent presence and often national-level messaging struggled to counter the NDA's localized and highly aggressive attack on the state government's performance and the RJD’s past. The "vote chori 2.0" did not do much to favour them either. The constant weakness in raising and upholding an issue has been a key weakness of the opposition.

The Opposition’s 'Mission-Vision' Deficit

Another structural weakness facing the MGB, and specifically the Congress, is the lack of a clear, coherent, and unifying political ideology or "mission-vision." Ever since the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress has struggled to articulate what it fundamentally stands for beyond being an anti-BJP front.

In Bihar, while the RJD provided the core message of unemployment, the Congress's own messaging, often focusing on national issues like "vote chori" and abstract calls for democratic rights, failed to resonate on the ground. The party’s dismal strike rate within the MGB, winning only a handful of the seats it contested highlights its organizational weakness and its inability to craft a political identity that connects with the local electorate. This lack of a clear, positive message made the entire alliance vulnerable to the NDA’s focused narrative on stability, development, and past misrule. On the contrary, Asaduddin Owaisi's regional party AIMIM secured 5 seats whereas a national party like Congress could only secure 6 seats.

The Decisive Role of Women Voters

The massive turnout of women voters proved to be a decisive factor, overwhelmingly favoring the NDA and Nitish Kumar. Women outvoted men by a significant margin, and this demographic’s support appears to have been cemented by the Chief Minister's social welfare initiatives. Specifically, the NDA’s focus on schemes like the cash benefit provided to women and the implementation of the liquor ban which resonated deeply with women concerned about domestic issues helped build a loyal vote bank. This segment of the electorate showed clear preference for a stable regime that prioritized social security and law and order, an area where the NDA successfully differentiated itself from the MGB. The RJD’s counter-promises were simply not enough to break this long-standing bond.

A Worrying Trend for the Mahagathbandhan

The embarrassing defeat in Bihar follows a similar drubbing in the recent Maharashtra Assembly Election, signaling a worrying trend for the larger opposition grouping. Consecutive losses in two major states underscore fundamental flaws in the Mahagathbandhan's approach. The MGB must accept that blaming "vote chori" as the sole reason like they did with “EVM hacking” before for their electoral failure is not being in sync with the ground reality. The results demand a more rigorous self-assessment into the structure of Congress party and the long-standing favourable treatment towards pro-Gandhi leaders needs to change. The opposition needs to undertake intensive, dedicated ground work, develop a strong, unified political message that goes beyond mere anti-incumbency, and address the deep-seated skepticism about its ability to govern. The Bihar verdict is not just a loss of an election; it is an alarming warning that without a fresh vision and a coherent structure, the path to reclaiming power remains only a mirage.